未来金国家卫生支出:2035年的预测分析
Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo1, Himanshu Sekhar Rout2, Mihajlo Jakovljevic3,4,5
1Department of Analytical & Applied Economics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India. pragyan@utkaluniversity.ac.in.
Globalization and health
|July 11, 2023
概括
在金国家,卫生支出正在上升,但由于公共和预付费覆盖率低,公平获得仍然是一个挑战. 未来的支出预测可以指导对全民医疗覆盖的资源分配.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 新兴经济体的新兴经济体
- 全球卫生政策 全球卫生政策
背景情况:
- 全球化刺激了新兴经济体的经济增长,包括金国家.
- 尽管医疗支出增加,但金国家在实现医疗安全方面面临挑战,原因是公共投资低,预付费选择有限,以及高自付费用.
- 改革医疗支出组成对于公平获得全面医疗保健至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2000年至2019年金国家卫生支出趋势.
- 预测这些国家到2035年的公共,预付和自付医疗支出.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自经合组织iLibrary数据库 (2000-2019年) 的卫生支出数据.
- 在R中使用指数级平滑模型 (ets()) 来预测未来的支出.
主要成果:
- 大多数金国家预计将增加人均卫生支出 (PPP),但印度和巴西除外.
- 印度的卫生支出占GDP的比例可能会在SDG之后下降.
- 中国预计到2035年,人均支出增长最为显著,俄罗斯的绝对值预计最高.
结论:
- 金国家拥有领导全球卫生政策和改革的潜力.
- 对健康权和全民健康覆盖 (UHC) 的国家承诺正在进行中.
- 预计的卫生支出数据可以为实现UHC目标的资源配置策略提供信息.
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