建模报告不足的时空犯罪事件
Álvaro J Riascos Villegas1,2, Jose Sebastian Ñungo1,3, Lucas Gómez Tobón1
1Quantil, Bogotá, Colombia.
PloS one
|July 12, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的模型来估计真正的犯罪率和报告不足,解决"犯罪的黑暗数字". 该方法使用日常数据来改进公共安全策略.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 犯罪统计对于公共安全战略至关重要,但受到报告不足的影响,造成了"犯罪的黑暗数字".
- 准确的犯罪发生率和报告不足率对于有效的政策设计至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的方法来估计随时间推移的真实犯罪发生率和报告不足率.
- 用连续可用的每日数据来应对"黑色犯罪数字"的挑战.
主要方法:
- 提出了一个基于组合的多武器强盗框架的新型时空事件低报告模型.
- 该模型的参数,包括真实发生率和报告不足率,通过广泛的模拟来验证.
- 该方法应用于哥伦比亚波哥大现实世界犯罪数据.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法在模拟中成功确定了基本模型参数.
- 估计的真实犯罪率和报告不足率来自波哥大的犯罪数据.
- 该研究表明,可以快速估计空间时间事件的报告不足率.
结论:
- 开发的方法提供了一个有希望的方法来准确估计犯罪报告不足.
- 这种技术可以通过提供更可靠的犯罪数据,显著帮助制定公共政策.
- 解决"黑色犯罪数字"对于加强公民安全至关重要.
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