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连接的极端事件的时空复合:投影和热点识别
Manikanta Velpuri1, Jew Das1, N V Umamahesh1
1National Institute of Technology, Warangal, India.
Environmental research
|July 12, 2023
概括
预计印度的热浪和干旱等相关极端天气事件的持续时间将随着气候变化而增加,特别是在印度半岛. 印度半岛和印度中西部的脆弱性最高.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 时间空间分析 时间空间分析
背景情况:
- 极端天气事件经常同时发生,影响相同的地区和时间框架.
- 了解不同规模的连接极端事件的复合效应对于影响评估至关重要.
- 印度面临着因热浪,干旱和极端降雨等相互关联的极端气候现象造成的重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 用时空复合技术分析印度的历史和未来连接的极端事件.
- 在各种气候变化情景下,调查巧合的热浪和干旱 (事件C1) 以及热浪和极端降雨 (事件C2) 的影响.
- 确定脆弱的热点地区,并根据不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 评估它们的未来风险.
主要方法:
- 应用时空复合技术来分析连接的极端事件.
- 在SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5场景下利用了全球气候模型 (GCM) 预测.
- 采用妥协编程来选择合适的GCM和区域气候变化指数 (RCCI) 方法来识别热点.
主要成果:
- 时间复合的增加显著增加了极端事件的平均持续时间,特别是事件C1 (热浪和干旱).
- 印度半岛 (PI) 和印度中西部 (WCI) 在未来气候情景下显示C1事件持续时间的最高增长.
- 印度半岛 (PI) 被确定为最脆弱的地区,其次是印度中西部 (WCI) 和山区 (HR),SSP5-8.5情景显示新兴热点下的最大面积.
结论:
- 时间复合加剧了连接的极端事件的持续时间,对印度的气候变化适应有重大影响.
- 与事件C2相比,事件C1 (热浪和干旱) 在持续时间的增加方面构成更大的未来风险.
- 对于像PI和WCI这样的脆弱地区,迫切需要采取适应战略,以减轻气候极端变化的不断升级的影响.
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