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Updated: Jul 23, 2025

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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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对气候引起的死亡风险变化的风险风险权衡评估
Irene Mussio1, Susan Chilton1, Darren Duxbury1
1Newcastle University Business School, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
概括
气候变化影响健康,需要对死亡风险进行新的评估. 研究表明,人们更重视预防极端天气死亡,而不是交通事故死亡,这表明与气候相关的统计生命价值 (VSL).
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 气候变化对人类健康构成重大风险,被确定为联合国COP26的优先事项.
- 统计生命价值 (VSL) 对英国的政策评估至关重要,但它对气候相关死亡风险的应用仍在争论中.
- 现有的交通事故VSL可能无法充分捕捉公众对极端天气事件风险的评估.
研究的目的:
- 估计公众对与极端天气事件相关的死亡风险的估值.
- 为了确定与气候相关的死亡事故是否需要修改的VSL.
- 探索影响风险感知和估值的心理因素.
主要方法:
- 一项声明偏好调查与英国人口代表性样本进行.
- 采用了使用非货币,风险风险权衡问题的相对估值框架.
- 问题比较了极端天气事件与交通事故的死亡风险.
主要成果:
- 发现了1.2-1.6的极端天气事件风险溢价,这表明与气候有关的VSL为2.52-3.41万英.
- 心理上更接近气候变化的人与交通事故风险相比,将极端天气死亡风险降低的重量几乎翻了一番.
- 调查结果表明,需要对气候变化影响进行特定环境的VSL调整.
结论:
- 与交通事故相比,公众对防止极端天气事件造成的死亡人数的估值更高.
- 心理上的接近气候变化显著影响了减轻相关死亡风险的感知重要性.
- 政策评估过程应纳入气候特异性VSL,以准确反映社会偏好和气候变化日益升级的威胁.
关键词:
统计生活的价值.气候变化 气候变化 气候变化死亡风险,死亡风险.心理上的距离 心理上的距离风险-风险权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权衡权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权权相关概念视频
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