一个零膨胀的特有流行病模型,适用于德国麻疹时间序列
1Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift
|July 13, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的零膨胀的特有流行病流行病模型,以更好地分析具有许多零的传染病数据. 改进的模型改善了疾病病例的概率预测,特别是麻疹病例.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 传染病监测通常涉及计数数据与多余的零.
- 现有的特有流行病 (HHH) 模型无法充分处理零膨胀数据.
- 零通胀可能因时间,年龄或地区而异.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个具有随机效应的多变量零膨胀特有流行病-流行病模型.
- 为零膨胀计数数据扩展传统的HHH方法.
- 改善传染病监测数据的分析和预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种多变量零膨胀的特有流行病混合模型.
- 纳入随机效应以解释数据异质性.
- 用分析衍生来进行参数估计,利用处罚的最大概率推断.
- 将模型应用于德国 (2005-2018) 麻疹发病率数据.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型在模拟中证明了适当的收和良好的置信区间覆盖.
- 在麻疹数据中,零通胀在接种疫苗覆盖率较高的东德州更为明显.
- 考虑到零通货膨胀显著改善了麻疹病例的概率预测.
结论:
- 零膨胀的特有流行病模型是分析多余零的传染病监测数据的有价值的扩展.
- 这种方法提高了疾病预测的准确性.
- 该模型提供了一个适用于各种监控场景的灵活框架.
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