气候变化对南亚和东南亚地区登革热流行病的影响:一项建模研究
Yawen Wang1, Shi Zhao1,2,3, Yuchen Wei1,2
1Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|July 13, 2023
概括
气候变化将在南亚和东南亚显著增加登革热疫情. 限制温室气体排放对于减少未来登革热传播风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气候变化对热带地区登革热疫情构成不确定的威胁.
- 登革热是南亚和东南亚的重大公共卫生问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对登革热传播动态的影响.
- 在亚洲四个地区,根据各种气候变化情景,预测未来的登革热疫情.
主要方法:
- 收集了2012-2020年新加坡,科伦坡,州和清迈的每周登革热发病率和每日气候数据 (温度,降雨量).
- 在共享社会经济路径 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 情景下,利用疾病传播模型预测登革热流行病直到2090年代.
- 分析了年度峰值发病率,峰值时间,流行病规模和疫情持续时间的变化.
主要成果:
- 在高排放SSP585情景下,峰值登革热发病率预计将在2090年代大幅上升,特别是在清迈 (>10倍).
- 据预测,新加坡,科伦坡和塞兰戈尔的高峰传输时间将更早,但在SSP585.5下,清迈的发射时间将更晚.
- 即使在较温和的SSP126情景下,到2090年代,疫情规模预计将在所有四个地点都增加,疫情持续时间将大幅增加.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将加剧热带南亚和东南亚热带地区登革热传播风险.
- 减轻温室气体排放对于制登革热疫情预计增加至关重要.
- 调查结果强调,在公共卫生规划中迫切需要气候适应和减缓战略.
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