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建模框架,以评估生态系统管理对社会的影响
Laura Uusitalo1, Riikka Puntila-Dodd2, Janne Artell3
1Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Finland; Natural Resources Institute, Finland.
The Science of the total environment
|July 13, 2023
概括
将利益相关者的价值观纳入生态系统管理模式,可以提高决策能力. 对波罗的海应用的一种新方法表明,温和的气候和严格的渔业/营养管理有利于所有利益相关者.
科学领域:
- 基于生态系统的管理.
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 社会生态系统分析系统分析
背景情况:
- 生态系统模型预测管理影响,但往往忽视社会后果.
- 环境状况的可取性通常由政策目标来定义,而不是利益相关者的价值观.
- 环境状况的社会影响在不同利益相关者群体之间可能会有很大差异.
研究的目的:
- 引入和展示一种评估生态系统管理替代方案的方法,考虑利益相关者的经验价值.
- 整合生态系统模型的输出与利益相关者的偏好,以建立一个全面的决策支持框架.
- 评估不同的管理策略如何影响波罗的海的各个利益相关者群体.
主要方法:
- 使用Ecosim (EwE) 模型的Ecopath模拟生态系统对管理和气候场景的反应.
- 通过问卷调查纳入利益相关者的价值观,以确定生态系统状态的目标.
- 采用贝叶斯决策支持模型来结合生态系统模拟和利益相关者的偏好.
主要成果:
- 温和气候情景与严格的渔业和营养物质负载管理相结合,为所有受调查的利益相关者带来了最高的利益.
- 该研究确定了特定的管理选项,以最大限度地提高不同利益相关者群体的利益.
- 证明不同的利益相关者群体可以从不同的管理选择中受益.
结论:
- 开发的方法通过结合利益相关者的价值观,有效地评估管理替代方案,从而导致更具包容性的决策.
- 这种方法为基于其社会生态效益的管理选项进行比较提供了一个框架.
- 调查结果强调了考虑利益相关者的偏好对于实现有效和公平的生态系统管理的重要性.
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