人口老龄化,均衡饮食和中国的谷物需求
Xiuli Liu1,2,3,4, Mun S Ho4, Geoffrey J D Hewings5
1Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
Nutrients
|July 14, 2023
概括
准确的谷物需求预测对于全球粮食安全至关重要. 本研究引入了一种多因素模型,考虑饮食,人口和废物,以改善预测并为可持续粮食管理政策提供信息.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 准确的谷物需求预测对于全球粮食安全至关重要.
- 以前的模型往往忽略了多个影响因素的同时影响.
- 改善短期粮食需求 (GD) 预测的需要至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和说明一个多因素模型,以提高短期粮食需求 (GD) 预测.
- 整合关键因素,包括饮食变化,人口统计,城市化和食物浪费.
- 为中国从2022年到2025年的年度GDP提供更新的预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种包含饮食结构,人口规模和年龄,城市化,食物浪费和COVID-19影响的多因素模型.
- 使用最新可用的调查和统计数据校准模型参数.
- 根据不同饮食情景 (2013-2019趋势与2022指南相比) 预计中国的年度GDP.
主要成果:
- 根据2013-2019年饮食趋势,预计中国的GDP在2022年为6.29.35亿,在2025年为6.58.16亿.
- 转向推饮食可以减少每年GD的5.9-11.1%,主要是通过减少料谷物.
- 忽视人口年龄结构可能会将GD高估3.8%;减少食物浪费显著影响了GD减少.
结论:
- 同时考虑饮食结构和人口组成对于准确的GD预测至关重要.
- 专注于饮食转变和减少食物浪费的政策干预对于粮食安全,健康和环境可持续性至关重要.
- 该模型为政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,以应对谷物部门的复杂挑战.
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