LiG计量,相关错误,以及全球表面空气温度记录的完整性
1Scientific Staff Emeritus, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 14, 2023
概括
由于液体玻璃温度计的局限性和传感器错误,历史全球温度记录是不可靠的. 这些问题掩盖了20世纪真正的温度趋势,使得数据不足以进行准确的气候分析.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 计量学 计量学 计量学
- 仪器科学 仪器科学
背景情况:
- 1981年之前发布的全球表面空气温度异常 (GSATA) 记录显示不确定性超过仪器分辨率限制.
- 历史上使用的液体玻璃 (LiG) 温度计具有固有的局限性,包括朱尔漂移和非线性,影响温度准确性.
- 历史温度传感器的系统错误,包括海面温度 (SST) 测量,往往是相关的,而不是随机的.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评估历史全球温度记录的不确定性和可靠性.
- 识别和量化仪器和测量错误对GSATA记录的影响.
- 评估20世纪GSATA关于温度变化速度和大小的信息内容.
主要方法:
- 对液体玻璃温度计分辨率和非线性限制的分析.
- 在温度计灯泡中调查焦耳漂移,包括X射线辐射分析.
- 将半波量图分析应用于船上SST测量,以描述错误分布.
- 评估转移函数调整及其对测量独立性和不确定性传播的影响.
主要成果:
- 截至1980年GSATA记录的95%不确定性小于LiG温度计的±0.25°C分辨率极限.
- 焦尔漂移和LiG温度计的非线性引入了显著的不确定性 (例如,1981年之前的1σ = ±0.27°C),掩盖了20世纪的趋势.
- 对于GSATA计算的2σ RMS不确定性在不同的时期是相当大的:±1.7 °C (1900-1945),±2.1 °C (1946-1980),±2.0 °C (1981-2004),±1.6 °C (2005-2010).这些时间段的不确定性为:±1.7 °C (1900-1945),±2.1 °C (1946-1980),±2.0 °C (1981-2004),±1.6 °C (2005-2010).
- 20世纪GSATA (1900-1999) 的0.74±1.94°C没有提供有关温度变化速率或幅度的有意义信息.
结论:
- 历史上的全球温度记录,特别是那些依赖于LiG温度计的记录,由于未经纠正的仪器错误,基本上是不可靠的.
- 测量不确定性的幅度明显超过报告的GSATA趋势,质疑从这些数据中得出的结论的有效性.
- 重新思考历史气候数据分析是必要的,考虑到早期测量技术和系统错误结构的局限性.
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