肝移植后预测慢性病的诺莫格拉姆模型的开发和验证:多中心回顾性研究
Zenglei He1, Yimou Lin1, Siyi Dong2
1Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, 310003, China.
Scientific reports
|July 14, 2023
概括
慢性病 (CKD) 是肝移植 (LT) 后的一个常见并发症. 一个新的诺莫格拉姆模型准确地预测LT后的CKD,识别风险因素以改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 移植医学 移植医学
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 经常使肝移植复杂化,严重影响患者的预后.
- 移植后的CKD影响了移植的存活率和整体患者的结果,需要更好的预测工具.
研究的目的:
- 确定肝移植后 (LT) 慢性病 (CKD) 的危险因素.
- 开发和验证后LT CKD的预测名录模型.
主要方法:
- 对515名成年肝移植接受者的回顾性分析.
- 在训练和测试集上使用COX回归分析开发名图.
- 在独立的队列中对名录的外部验证.
主要成果:
- LT后CKD的发病率为16.9%,平均随访时间为22.73个月.
- 严重的CKD (IV-V阶段) 与明显较低的整体存活率 (p=0.0015) 相关.
- 纳米图,结合年龄,无肝期,eGFR和甘油三,在验证组中显示出良好的预测准确性.
结论:
- 严重的CKD后LT显著降低了肝脏接受者的生存率.
- 开发的名图为预测LT后CKD提供了可靠的工具.
- 早期识别高风险患者可能有助于改善移植后的管理.
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