为患有转移性乳腺癌的老年妇女开发和验证竞争性风险模型
Jie Tang1, Dianlong Zhang2, Xiudan Pan1
1Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Public Health School, Shenyang Medical College, Huanghe North Street 146, Shenyang, 110034, China.
BMC women's health
|July 14, 2023
概括
一个新的竞争性风险模型准确地预测了转移性乳腺癌 (MpBC) 的老年妇女的癌症特异性生存率. 该工具有助于为这种罕见的癌症亚型做出个性化治疗决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 转移性乳腺癌 (MpBC) 是一种罕见的组织学亚型.
- 准确的生存预测对于患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种具有竞争力的风险模型,用于预测患有MpBC的老年妇女的癌症特异性生存率 (CSM).
- 确定影响该群体中CSM的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 计划 (2010-2019) 的数据.
- 采用比例分发风险模型来分析风险因素.
- 使用培训和验证集构建和验证竞争风险模型,使用C指数,校准曲线和AUC进行评估.
主要成果:
- 包括1,412名患有MpBC的老年女性.
- 确定年龄,T阶段,N阶段,M阶段,瘤大小,手术和放射治疗作为CSM的风险因素.
- 开发的模型表现出良好的预测准确性 (C指数:0.792培训,0.744验证) 和校准.
结论:
- 成功开发了一种可靠的竞争性风险模型,用于预测MpBC老年妇女的CSM.
- 该模型是个性化临床决策的有效工具.
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