在未来气候和生态系统恢复的相互作用影响下,热带河口生态系统的变化
Mason Smith1, David Chagaris2, Richard Paperno3
1Department of Geosciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
Global change biology
|July 15, 2023
概括
埃弗格莱德综合修复计划 (CERP) 可能会改善佛罗里达湾.
科学领域:
- 生态系统建模 生态系统建模
- 生态恢复 生态恢复
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
背景情况:
- 埃弗格莱德综合修复计划 (CERP) 是一项大规模的努力,旨在恢复佛罗里达湾河口的淡水流动.
- 佛罗里达湾面临海平面上升 (SLR) 和气温上升的预计影响.
- 了解生态系统对气候变化下的恢复反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测佛罗里达湾的生态系统对CERP水文恢复的反应.
- 评估恢复,海平面上升和温度升温的综合影响.
- 模拟生物质,渔业捕捞和生态系统弹性方面的变化.
主要方法:
- 采用了一个时空动态模型 (Ecospace).
- 一个食物网模型结合了环境驱动因素:盐度,温度,深度和海草丰富度.
- 对当前与未来的生态系统条件进行了预测.
主要成果:
- 预计许多河口物种的生物质和分布将增加.
- 料鱼,如海和鱼,显示了显著的生物质增加.
- 预计运动鱼生物量将增加,例如斑点海和红鼓等物种,尽管一些物种如常见的鱼有所下降.
结论:
- 佛罗里达湾生态系统可能会从恢复中受益,尽管气候变化的影响.
- 该系统的浅深和破碎基可能有助于适应.
- 对于类似的系统,建议将气候变化纳入使用生态系统模型的恢复计划.
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