新型动态名录和风险分类系统,用于预测手术后的整体存活率和死亡风险:基于SEER数据库的人口研究
Liming Jiang1, Yan Gong1, Jiajia Jiang1
1Department of Orthopedics, The China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, No.126 Xiantai Street, Changchun, 130033, Jilin, People's Republic of China.
Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology
|July 15, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一种新的名图,用于预测手术后原发性肌肉瘤患者的存活率. 使用年龄和瘤大小等因素的诺莫图,比目前的分期系统提供了更好的预测.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 手术预后 手术预后
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 手术是原发性软骨髓瘤的主要治疗方法.
- 准确预测手术后的结果对于患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证第一个用于预测初级软骨肉瘤患者手术后整体存活期 (OS) 的名图.
- 为了比较名图的预测准确性与AJCC分期系统.
主要方法:
- 利用了SEER数据库 (2004-2015) 中1005名患者的数据.
- 使用考克斯回归来确定预后因素 (年龄,年级,瘤大小,阶段,组织学).
- 通过使用C指数,ROC/AUC,校准曲线和DCA来评估nomogram性能,并与AJCC分期进行比较.
主要成果:
- 确定了五个独立的预后变量来构建名ogram.
- 与AJCC系统 (C指数培训:0.686,验证:0.697) 相比,名图显示出更好的预测性能 (C指数培训:0.805,验证:0.811).
- 高AUC值 (>0.8) 和准确的校准曲线证实了诺米图的优秀预测能力和临床实用性.
结论:
- 已经成功开发和验证了一种可靠的nomogram,用于预测初级软骨肉瘤患者的3年,5年和8年的OS.
- 基于Web的Nomogram动态版本可以增强临床应用,帮助外科决策.
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