开发和验证用于预测一般人口死亡风险的血液生物标志物评分
Jing Yang1, Jiayi Lu1, Junyan Miao1
1Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, 101 Longmian Avenue, Nanjing, 211166, China.
Journal of translational medicine
|July 15, 2023
概括
新的性别特异性血液生物标记得分可以预测死亡风险. 这些分数可以识别高风险的个体,有助于针对性预防早逝的策略.
科学领域:
- 生物标志物和疾病预测
- 人口健康和流行病学.
- 预防医学 预防医学
背景情况:
- 多种生物途径,包括炎症,脂质代谢和激素调节,与死亡风险有关.
- 以前的研究还没有系统地评估血液生物标志物对死亡率的综合预测能力.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证特定性别的血液生物标记得分,以预测所有原因和特定原因死亡率.
- 评估生物标志物对传统风险因素与死亡率之间的关联的调解作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自267239名参与者的英国生物库数据,不包括那些先前患有心血管疾病 (CVD) 或癌症的人.
- 使用考克斯和LASSO回归在训练组 (n=247,503) 上开发的性别特定得分,并在单独的组 (n=19,736) 中验证.
- 使用C指数和校准图表评估预测性表现;分析生物标志物对传统风险因素的中介效应.
主要成果:
- 确定了男性的13个独立预测因素和女性的17个预测因素,并纳入了性别特定的得分.
- 最高得分的三位数与男性 (5.36) 和女性 (4.23) 的全因死亡风险比率显著增加有关.
- 在验证组中,得分显示出对所有原因死亡率 (C指数为0.73男性,0.70女性),心血管疾病和癌症死亡率的良好预测能力. 囊素C,C反应蛋白,25-氧维生素D和血红蛋白A1c调解了传统风险因素和死亡率之间的联系.
结论:
- 建立了经过验证的,特定于性别的血液生物标记得分,用于预测一般人群中死亡风险.
- 这些得分可以识别所有原因和特定原因死亡风险较高的个体.
- 这些发现支持了改善有针对性的预防策略以减少过早死亡的潜力.
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