短期气候变化对地表水质的影响 农业活动对地表水质的影响
Bekir Cem Avcı1, Erdal Kesgin2, Masume Atam1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Bogazici University, 34342, Istanbul, Sariyer, Turkey.
概括
气候变化影响北爱琴海盆地
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球农业和水资源产生重大影响.
- 土耳其的北爱琴海盆地面临着农业集约化和地表水中的酸盐和含量上升.
- 了解气候变化对水质的影响对于可持续的农业管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对北爱琴海盆地地表水质量的潜在影响.
- 在不同气候变化场景下评估最佳管理实践 (BMP) 的有效性.
- 为该地区水资源管理的政策制定提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用来自代表度路径 (RCP) 情景 4.5 和 8.5 (2010-2030) 的缩小规模的全球气候数据.
- 使用土壤和水资源评估工具 (SWAT) 的水文模型来模拟气候和BMP场景.
- 分析了降水,流水和营养物质 (总 - TP,总 - TN) 负载和度的变化.
主要成果:
- 在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景中,预计降水量减少,影响流水和营养水平.
- RCP4.5模拟显示在IST_KEN014.4.5时TP (24.42%) 和TN (58.45%) 度显著增加.
- 在两个RCP情景下,模拟的BMP导致TN (2.21-10.97%) 和TP (3.57-16.81%) 负载显著减少.
结论:
- 气候变化对北爱琴海盆地的地表水质量构成重大威胁,增加了营养污染.
- 最佳管理实践表明,在减轻气候变化对水质的负面影响方面,有很大的潜力.
- 推实施BMP,以实现该地区的可持续农业发展和水资源保护.
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