模拟燃料价格变化对欧盟道路交通碰撞的影响,使用面板数据
Nadia K Naqvi1, Mohammed Quddus2, Marcus Enoch3
1Loughborough University, Transport Studies Group, LE11 3TU, UK.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|July 16, 2023
概括
燃料价格上显著减少了道路交通死亡和碰撞. 燃料价格上10%与死亡人数下降2.6%,总碰撞人数下降1.4%相关.
科学领域:
- 道路交通安全问题 道路安全问题
- 运输经济学 运输经济学
- 交通工程是交通工程.
背景情况:
- 全球道路死亡人数随着机动化而上升,但在发达国家下降.
- 影响道路安全的因素包括车辆设计,执法,经济条件和燃料价格.
研究的目的:
- 调查燃油价格对高燃油价格国家道路碰撞频率的影响.
- 量化燃料价格波动与道路安全结果之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 来自28个欧盟成员国 (2005-2018) 的月度小组数据的分析.
- 使用随机效应负二项式 (RENB) 和人口平均负二项式 (GEE) 模型.
- 检查了汽油和柴油价格,死亡人数,受伤碰撞和总碰撞.
主要成果:
- 燃料价格上与道路交通事故死亡人数,受伤碰撞和整体碰撞的显著减少有关.
- 燃料价格上10%导致死亡人数减少2.6% (汽油) 和2.2% (柴油).
- 总碰撞减少了1.4% (汽油) 和1.2% (柴油),总伤亡减少了1.6% (汽油) 和1.4% (柴油).
结论:
- 司机可以降低速度以节省燃料,减少驾驶以节省资金,降低暴露和风险.
- 促进替代燃料的政策需要考虑由于对传统燃料的暴露减少而对道路安全的潜在影响.
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