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基于影响的季节性降雨预报将触发对干旱的早期行动
Tim Busker1, Hans de Moel1, Bart van den Hurk2
1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
The Science of the total environment
|July 16, 2023
概括
在非洲之角采取早期干旱行动至关重要. 季节性预测,如ECMWF SEAS5,显示在干旱影响之前启动干预措施的经济价值,特别是在10月-11月-12月季节.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
背景情况:
- 非洲之角因连续失败的雨季而面临严重干旱,影响数百万人和牲畜.
- 现有的干旱研究优先考虑预测,而不是可操作的早期预警系统.
- 极其需要优化干旱缓解的早期行动战略.
研究的目的:
- 通过季节性天气预报,调查早期干旱行动的可能性.
- 评估肯尼亚,索马里和埃塞俄比亚干旱早期预警系统的经济价值.
- 评估ECMWF SEAS5系统对干旱准备的有用性.
主要方法:
- 使用了ECMWF SEAS5系统对MAM和OND季节的季节性降雨预测.
- 与21个肯尼亚县的干旱监测数据相关联的预测数据.
- 计算了预测的潜在经济价值 (PEV),以触发早期行动.
主要成果:
- SEAS5季节性降雨预报准确地反映了干旱对地面的影响.
- 肯尼亚和索马里的OND短期预测显示了相当大的经济价值 (PEVmax高达0.8).
- 带有较长交付时间 (1-2个月) 的预测保留了显著的,尽管减少了,经济效益.
结论:
- 季节性预报为启动有效的早期干旱行动提供了巨大的潜力,特别是在OND季节.
- 与预测一起传播早期行动的经济价值对于用户采用至关重要.
- 这项研究支持主动干旱管理和脆弱地区的抗旱能力建设.
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