具有季节性组成部分的时空空间非均鱼类模型应用于分析极端降雨量
Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales1, Daniele Torres Rodrigues2
1Department of Statistics, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil.
Journal of applied statistics
|July 17, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了用于计数数据的先进时空模型,增强了极端降雨事件的预测. 新模型在分析事件频率方面表现出卓越的性能和准确性.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 时空模型对于分析计数数据至关重要,但季节性周期可能会使趋势估计变得复杂.
- 现有的模型可能难以准确地估计强度函数的参数,例如Weibull和Goel.
- 了解极端降雨模式对于区域风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个扩展的时空模型,使用非均的波桑过程来计算数据.
- 为了提高准确性,将季节周期组件纳入强度函数.
- 分析巴西东北部极端降雨的频率.
主要方法:
- 扩展时空模型与非均的波桑过程.
- 在强度函数中包含季节周期组件.
- 模型参数的贝叶斯估计.
- 与使用Musa-Okumoto强度函数的其他空间模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 与现有的近似相比,拟议的模型表现出优越的适合性和预测性能.
- 与其他模型不同,拟议的方法没有检测到极端降雨事件发生率的显著变化.
- 该模型有效地处理影响事件率估计的季节性变化.
结论:
- 开发的时空模型为分析计数数据提供了更高的准确性,特别是对于极端事件.
- 纳入季节性因素提高了事件发生率趋势分析的稳定性.
- 该模型为研究研究区域的极端降雨模式提供了可靠的工具.
相关概念视频
Poisson's And Laplace's Equation
3.1K
The electric potential of the system can be calculated by relating it to the electric charge densities that give rise to the electric potential. The differential form of Gauss's law expresses the electric field's divergence in terms of the electric charge density.
3.1K
Poisson Probability Distribution
8.3K
A Poisson probability distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It gives the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events happen at a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. For example, a book editor might be interested in the number of words spelled incorrectly in a particular book. It might be that, on average, there are five words spelled incorrectly in 100 pages. The interval is 100 pages.
The...
The...
8.3K
Precipitation Processes
490
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
490
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.9K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.9K
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
484
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
484
Poisson's Ratio
496
Poisson's ratio is a material property that indicates their stress response. It explains the connection between the elongation or compression a material undergoes in the direction of an applied force and the contraction or expansion it experiences perpendicular to that force. When a slender bar is loaded axially, it stretches in the direction of the force and contracts laterally. Poisson's ratio is the negative ratio of this lateral contraction to the axial elongation. The negative sign...
496


