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预后模型用于预测克罗恩病的术后复发:系统性审查和批判性评估
Rirong Chen1, Jieqi Zheng2, Chao Li2
1Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Frontiers in immunology
|July 17, 2023
概括
预后模型可以帮助预测手术后克罗恩氏病复发. 然而,目前的模型需要更多的验证,以便在患者管理中可靠的临床使用.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 克罗恩病的术后复发是一个重大的临床挑战.
- 预后模型对于分层患者和实现个性化管理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和批判性地评估现有的预后模型,以预测克罗恩病患者的术后复发.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed和Web of Science (2022年1月) 进行了系统的文献搜索.
- 包括研究开发或验证了克罗恩病复发的预后模型.
- 预测模型偏差风险评估 (PROBAST) 工具被用于评估偏差风险.
主要成果:
- 包括15项研究,开发15个新模型和验证3个现有模型.
- 模型使用回归算法,评分指数和机器学习.
- 模型性能各不相同,六个模型显示出良好的区别 (AUC>0.80);然而,所有模型都在建模/分析中表现出高偏差风险.
结论:
- 预后模型对评估克罗恩病术后复发风险充满希望.
- 进一步验证对于确保当前模型在临床实践中的可靠性和适用性至关重要.
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