乳腺癌外科风险计算器 (BCSRc) 的外部验证:术后并发症的预测模型
Michael M Jonczyk1, Manish Karamchandani2, Alessandra Zaccardelli3
1Department of Surgery, Lahey Hospital & Medical Center, Burlington, MA, USA. Michael.M.Jonczyk@lahey.org.
Annals of surgical oncology
|July 17, 2023
概括
乳腺癌手术风险计算器 (BCSRc) 准确预测手术后的并发症. 外部验证证实了其可靠性,为患者和医生的知情决策和风险分层做出决定.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 手术结果研究研究.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 乳腺癌外科风险计算器 (BCSRc) 是一种用于预测乳腺癌手术后急性并发症的工具.
- 它有助于进行手术前风险分层,并为患者和医生提供明智的决策.
- 这项研究旨在在新的患者队列上对BCSRc模型进行外部验证.
研究的目的:
- 在乳腺癌外科风险计算器 (BCSRc) 中对四个预测模型进行外部验证.
- 评估BCSRc的性能,准确性和校准,对乳腺癌患者的大型独立队列进行评估.
主要方法:
- 利用国家外科质量改进计划 (2019-2020) 的大量队列进行外部验证.
- 采用后勤回归模型来预测整体,传染性,血液学和内部器官并发症.
- 通过使用曲线下的面积,布里尔得分和霍斯默-莱梅肖测试来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 外部验证显示了强的性能,所有模型的曲线下面积值约为0.70.
- 准确度 (布里尔分数) 范围在0.003到0.04之间,表明预测准确度很好.
- 霍斯默-莱梅肖测试显示模型校准良好,所有p值>0.05.
结论:
- 乳腺癌外科风险计算器 (BCSRc) 展示了出色的外部验证措施.
- 该工具有效地根据并发症风险对患者进行分层,增强了手术前决策.
- 更新的系数将在BCSRc平台 (www.breastcalc.org) 上实施.
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