基于土地使用变化和碳封存实践的生态系统的未来碳储存在一个大型经济带中
Jing Huang1, Qi Chen1, Qingrui Wang2
1State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China.
概括
准确的生态系统碳储存预测对于碳政策至关重要. 这项研究预测了长江经济带的土地使用变化和碳封存,突出了"谷物换绿"项目的重大影响.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 准确,大规模和长期的生态系统碳储存预测对于有效的碳政策至关重要.
- 现有的数据限制阻碍了对碳储存的准确预测.
- 长江经济带是生态和经济发展的关键地区.
研究的目的:
- 预测高分辨率的土地利用变化及其对2070年长江经济带生态系统碳储存的影响.
- 评估各种社会经济和气候变化场景的影响,包括谷物换绿项目.
- 评估碳捕获实践对未来碳密度的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用分布式土地使用变化预测 (DLUCP) 模型,使用20种场景组合 (10种社会经济,2种气候).
- 纳入人口增长,技术创新,气候变化和谷物换绿项目.
- 用户土地使用变化数据,碳密度数据和InVEST模型来预测生态系统的碳储存.
主要成果:
- 预计仅仅土地利用变化就会导致碳储量的轻微增加 (1.88-4.17%).
- 谷物换绿项目表现出最显著的积极影响,增加了碳储存4.17%.
- 实施碳捕获实践可以在2070年之前将碳储存量提高28.51%,达到56.77%.
结论:
- 增加上游地区的森林碳储存和下游地区的耕地碳储存是实现碳中和的有效策略.
- 该研究为长江经济带制定有针对性的碳政策提供了关键数据.
- 将土地利用规划与碳捕获实践相结合,对于缓解气候变化至关重要.
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