从2020年到2022年,中国的传染病在"第一级响应"",正常化控制"和"动态COVID零"阶段的直接和长期变化:多阶段中断时间序列分析
Tianshan Shi1, Xiaoshu Zhang2, Lei Meng2
1Institute of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.
BMC public health
|July 18, 2023
概括
中国的COVID-19控制策略对其他传染病产生了多种影响. 虽然大多数疾病最初减少,但一些疾病,如性传播和胃肠道感染,后来增加,表明不同的长期影响.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病控制和控制传染病
背景情况:
- 中国在2020年1月至2022年12月期间实施了三个不同的COVID-19控制战略.
- 这些非药物干预措施 (NPI) 对其他传染病的影响仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 综合了解中国COVID-19控制战略对各种传染病的直接和长期影响.
- 为了比较"第一级响应"",正常化控制"和"动态-COVID-零"策略的差异性影响.
主要方法:
- 从2015年1月到2022年7月,在中国收集的每月传染病病例数据.
- 考克斯-斯图尔特测试用于长期趋势和两比Z测试进行初步分析.
- 使用Poisson回归的多阶段中断时间序列分析来评估战略影响.
主要成果:
- 所有传染病最初在三个控制阶段下降.
- 性传播和胃肠道感染在第一阶段和第二阶段的发病率增加.
- 百日咳,流感和牛病发病率的斜率在第三阶段增加;控制策略的有效性在呼吸道和其他疾病上有所不同.
结论:
- COVID-19控制策略对传染病产生了即时和长期的影响,但有显著的差异.
- 特定的疾病,如百日咳,流感,血病和水病,显示出复苏的迹象.
- 随着NPI的放松,可能会出现呼吸道和媒介传播疾病的复发风险.
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