泰国南部的时空登革热风险建模:贝叶斯的方法来研究登革热的脆弱性
Fatima Ibrahim Abdulsalam1, Pablo Antúnez2, Warit Jawjit1
1School of Public Health, Walailak University, Thasala, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.
PeerJ
|July 19, 2023
概括
这项研究分析了泰国南部登革热风险,发现更高的温度和降雨会增加传播. 风险地图确定高风险地区,以有针对性地预防这种蚊子传播的疾病.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 登革热对公众健康构成重大威胁,特别是在亚洲,全球一半以上的人口面临风险.
- 泰国南部的气候为登革热传播创造了有利的条件,需要进行本地风险评估.
- 了解登革热感染风险的时空变化对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个共同的时空流行病学模型来评估泰国南部登革热风险.
- 调查环境变量对区级登革热发病率的影响.
- 确定登革热传播的高风险区域和时间趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 模拟实现了贝叶斯联合时空模型.
- 使用了来自泰国南部的月度登革热记录 (2002-2018) 和八个环境变量.
- 在R软件中的CARBayesST软件包促进了分析.
主要成果:
- 温度升高,雨天和海平面压力与登革热发生率和发病风险的增加有关.
- 较高的风速似乎对登革热传播有保护作用.
- 包括Phipun,Phrom Kili,Lan Saka,Phra Phrom和Chalom Phakiat在内的特定地区被确定为未来登革热风险较高的地区.
结论:
- 环境因素显著影响泰国南部登革热传播动态.
- 时空风险地图突出显示局部异常和高风险区域,有助于有针对性的控制策略.
- 预防措施对于减轻登革热日益严重的威胁至关重要,考虑到蚊子传播的疾病在东南亚蔓延.
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