中国的臭氧引起的心血管疾病的死亡负担:2019年与2050年对比
Mingyao Yao1, Yue Niu2, Shuchang Liu3,4
1Department of Building Science, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Environmental science & technology
|July 19, 2023
概括
中国的心血管疾病 (CVD) 死亡人数正因臭氧暴露而上升. 更严格的臭氧控制和降低心血管疾病死亡率对于减轻未来的健康影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 在中国造成了严重的健康负担,由生活方式和环境风险因素加剧.
- 臭氧是一种经常被忽视的环境风险因素,在心血管疾病的发展和恶化中起着至关重要的作用.
- 现有的研究往往低估了臭氧对公共健康的影响,需要进一步调查其对心血管疾病死亡率的具体贡献.
研究的目的:
- 量化到2050年中国成年人中由臭氧引起的心血管疾病死亡率的预计负担.
- 分析不同社会经济路径 (SSP126和SSP585) 对未来心脏病死亡率的影响.
- 评估臭氧暴露变化,人口老龄化和基线心血管疾病死亡率对未来死亡率的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用了5月至10月的每日最大8小时平均臭氧度 (6mDMA8) 数据.
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 585和126,预计到2050年的心血管疾病死亡负担.
- 纳入了更新的世卫组织空气质量指南,并考虑了人口变化和2019年至2050年间的基线死亡率趋势.
主要成果:
- 在可持续途径 (SSP126) 下,预计在2050年预计CVD过早死亡人数为359200人.
- 然而,这种减少可能不足以显著降低整体心血管疾病死亡负担.
- 臭氧暴露的变化,人口老龄化,人口规模和基线死亡率都有助于预计的死亡率数字.
结论:
- 实施更严格的臭氧控制措施对于减轻臭氧对中国心血管疾病死亡率的影响至关重要.
- 降低心血管疾病的基线死亡率是一个关键的补充战略.
- 环境法规和公共卫生干预措施的结合是必要的,以有效地解决日益增长的心血管疾病负担.
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