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热带流感流行病的重复性和时间
Joseph L Servadio1, Pham Quang Thai2,3, Marc Choisy4,5
1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
PLoS computational biology
|July 19, 2023
概括
越南的流感疫情不是季节性或可预测的,与温带地区不同. 这种缺乏可重复性意味着流感预防策略必须适应不规则的模式,而不是季节性预测.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 流感在温带气候中表现出可预测的季节性模式.
- 热带地区,如东南亚,流感流行病的时间表不那么一致.
- 热带地区流感季节性的重复性仍在争论中.
研究的目的:
- 评估越南流感季节性的重复性.
- 将可重复性定义为季节性高峰的一致时间,变化很小.
- 将越南的流感模式与温带地区的流感模式进行比较.
主要方法:
- 开发了传输周期的数学模型.
- 将模型与越南和四个温带地区的哨兵医院数据相匹配.
- 分析了单个和组合流感亚型的峰值传播时间变异.
主要成果:
- 越南的流感峰值传播显示出高变异性 (sd = 64-179天).
- 在越南,疫情在一年中不定期发生.
- 温度位置显示,与冬季流行病的差异很小 (sd = 32-57天).
结论:
- 越南的流感模式不是可重复的或始终是季节性的.
- 越南的流感预防不应该取决于预测定期的疫情.
- 公共卫生战略需要考虑越南不可预测的流感动态.
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