估计印度结核病负担:一个建模研究
Sandip Mandal1, Raghuram Rao2, Rajendra Joshi2
1Senior Advisor Data Analytics and Mathematical Modelling, John Snow Institute, New Delhi, India.
概括
印度 印度 印度
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 发病率和死亡率的测量对于跟踪实现可持续发展目标 (SDG) 的进展至关重要.
- 之前的印度结核病负担估计依赖于使用有限的州级数据的更简单的模型.
- 最近的国家调查和干预措施为更新国家和次国家结核病估计提供了机会.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个精细的数学模型来估计印度的结核病发病率和死亡率.
- 在结核病负担估计中考虑印度的医疗保健系统和COVID-19的干扰.
- 为2022年提供最新的国家结核病估计.
主要方法:
- 一个分隔式的,确定性的数学模型被开发出来,结合了印度的结核病自然史和寻求医疗保健的行为.
- 该模型是根据世卫组织的全球结核病报告2022方法改编的,并增加了2021年COVID-19三角洲波的影响.
- 数据来源包括国家结核病发病率调查,公共和私营部门病例数量趋势以及死亡率数据.
主要成果:
- 据估计,2022年结核病发病率为277万,低于2015年的297万.
- 据估计,2022年结核病死亡率为0.32万,低于2015年的0.36万.
- 每10万人口中的结核病发病率从2015年的225人下降到2022年的196人;死亡率分别从27人下降到23人.
结论:
- 数学建模有效地整合了各种数据源,以进行可靠的结核病负担估计.
- 虽然结核病发病率估计与世卫组织数据一致,但死亡率估计因使用国内数据的校准目标而有所不同.
- 提高医疗认证的死亡原因数据的质量和覆盖率对于准确的死亡率评估在印度至关重要.
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