老年心力衰竭患者短期结果的预测模型
Mengyu Cao1, Yanmin Ju1, Di Yang1
1Department of Cadre Ward, The First Hospital of Jilin University, No. 71, Xinmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130021, China.
Heart failure reviews
|July 20, 2023
概括
这项研究确定了女性性别,晚年,虚弱,营养不良和低射出分数 (EF ≤ 40%) 作为老年心力衰竭患者短期结果的关键风险因素. 经过验证的风险模型有助于预测预后.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
背景情况:
- 老年心力衰竭患者 (EHFP) 面临着影响短期预后的复杂健康挑战.
- 综合老年病评估 (CGA) 可以提供对EHFP结果的见解.
- 有效的风险分层对于管理EHFP至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查CGA对EHFP短期预后的影响.
- 确定EHFP中短期不良结果的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证EHFP的风险预测模型.
主要方法:
- 从医院数据库中对617个EHFP进行了回顾性分析,分为模型 (432) 和验证 (185) 组.
- 统变物流和考克斯回归分析,以确定短期结果的风险因素.
- 基于确定因素的风险预测得分的开发和验证.
主要成果:
- 对于EHFP中短期不良结果的独立风险因素包括女性的性别,年龄 (特别是75岁以上),脆弱性,营养不良和射出分数 (EF) ≤40%.
- 结合这五个因素的风险预测模型显示出良好的预测性能 (模型组的AUC为0.771,验证组的AUC为0.758).
- 该模型有效地将患者分为低风险和高风险组,70.1%的EHFP属于高风险类别.
结论:
- 女性性别,老年,虚弱,营养不良和EF降低 (≤40%) 是EHFP短期预后的重要独立风险因素.
- 开发的风险预测模型证明了临床实用性,用于预测EHFP的短期结果.
- 综合老年病学评估和风险分层对于管理老年心力衰竭患者至关重要.
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