概率性龙卷风警告对风险感知和响应的影响
Chao Qin1, Susan Joslyn1, Sonia Savelli2
1Department of Psychology, University of Washington.
Journal of experimental psychology. Applied
|July 20, 2023
概括
将龙卷风概率信息添加到警告中可以提高理解和信任. 与确定性预测相比,概率预测可以提高决策能力,特别是在更高的概率值时.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 人与计算机的交互
- 风险沟通 风险沟通
背景情况:
- 目前的龙卷风警告缺乏事件概率信息,使用确定性多边形.
- 龙卷风的可能性在预警区域内有所不同,这给公众带来了不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估将概率概率信息添加到龙卷风预警中的影响.
- 为了比较不同概率格式对决定性警告的有效性.
主要方法:
- 两项实验研究比较了具有五种概率格式 (数字和颜色编码) 的确定性多边形.
- 与经历过龙卷风的个人进行的一项面试研究.
- 使用预期价值计算评估决策质量.
主要成果:
- 与确定性警告相比,概率格式改善了对龙卷风可能性和用户信任的理解.
- 用概率格式的颜色编码导致了误解.
- 概率预测提高了避难所决策准确性和在更高的概率值 (30%) 的整体预期值.
- 经历过龙卷风的个人从事中间行动 (例如,搜索信息) 的概率较低 (10%),而不是避难.
结论:
- 概率性龙卷风预警在理解和决策方面比决定性预警更有好处.
- 概率预警的有效性取决于使用的概率值和格式.
- 需要进一步的研究来优化概率预警格式,并了解公众对不同可能性的反应.
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