新兴市场的政府支出冲击和违约风险
1Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
PloS one
|July 20, 2023
概括
新兴经济体的政府支出增加导致外部债务和主权债券利差更高,表明违约风险增加. 本研究分析了财政政策对经济稳定的影响.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 公共财政是公共财政.
背景情况:
- 冠状病毒大流行使人们重新关注财政政策的作用.
- 了解政府支出对新兴经济体的影响对于稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析政府支出冲击对新兴经济体违约风险的影响.
- 提供有关财政政策后果的理论和实证证据.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种一般平衡的小型开放经济模型.
- 在一个由18个新兴国家组成的小组上使用了矢量自回归 (VAR) 分析.
主要成果:
- 政府支出增加10%会导致实际有效汇率升值和经常账户恶化.
- 外债增长3.5%,主权债券利差 (EMBI Global) 显著增加,达到132个基点.
结论:
- 新兴经济体的政府支出冲击导致外债和主权违约风险增加.
- 经验发现与理论预测一致,证实了模型的有效性.
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