为了应对COVID-19大流行,NHS心血管等候名单的过程建模
Salvador Catsis1, Alan R Champneys1, Rebecca Hoyle2
1Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
BMJ open
|July 20, 2023
概括
英格兰的心血管疾病 (CVD) 等候名单.
科学领域:
- 卫生系统建模 卫生系统建模
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 途径
- 医疗保健管理的管理
背景情况:
- 英格兰国家卫生服务 (NHS) 的心血管疾病 (CVD) 等候名单在COVID-19后激增超过40%.
- 初级保健转诊限制造成了严重的瓶,加剧了患者流动问题.
研究的目的:
- 为NHS中心血管疾病患者途径开发一个系统动态模型.
- 为优化患者流动和减少专员和管理人员等待列表提供一种方法.
主要方法:
- 利用系统动态方法来建模英格兰CVD医疗保健系统.
- 雇员从NHS数字,英格兰NHS,国家统计局和威尔士国家统计局定期收集的,公开可用的数据.
- 使用PySD包在Python中实现模型,用于数据提取,培训和验证.
主要成果:
- 该模型捕捉了NHS心血管等候名单的当前状态,并预测了NHS心血管等候名单的未来状态.
- 增加的系统容量可能会悖论地恶化下游流,突出显示复杂的系统动态.
- 增加顾问门诊预约被认为是改善患者流量的最有影响力的干预措施.
结论:
- 系统动态方法有效地模拟NHS CVD等候名单动态,并预测干预的结果.
- 了解患者流中的反循环对于设计有效的策略来减少等待列表至关重要.
- 服务规划人员必须采用面向系统的视角,以解决干预措施对患者流量的反直觉影响.
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