一个时间序列分析美国乳制品州的牛奶生产率
M Li1, K F Reed2, V E Cabrera1
1Department of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53705.
Journal of dairy science
|July 20, 2023
概括
美国奶牛产量在牛奶,脂肪和蛋白质产量方面呈上升趋势,季节性模式因州和哺乳期不同而有所不同. 这些发现有助于农场管理和生产模拟.
科学领域:
- 乳制品科学 乳制品科学
- 动物生产 动物生产
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
背景情况:
- 美国奶牛产量充满活力,需要对牛奶和牛奶成分趋势进行表征.
- 了解季节性模式对于在州和地区一级准确的生产预测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化牛奶和牛奶成分生产的历史趋势和季节性模式,按平价和状态划分.
- 集群平价和具有类似生产模式的州.
- 总结集群模式用于模拟模型中的应用.
主要方法:
- 从5601万头荷尔斯坦牛 (2006-2016) 中利用了918万个哺乳记录.
- 应用时间序列分解来分析趋势和季节性.
- 采用聚合层次的分类 (动态时间扭曲和欧几里德距离) 来组合状态和平价值.
主要成果:
- 确定了所有州的明显趋势和季节性,以及牛奶,脂肪和蛋白质产量的哺乳期数.
- 观察到产量普遍上升趋势,脂肪/蛋白质百分比稳定趋势 (德克萨斯州除外).
- 对于产量较高的哺乳期数量,注意到季节性幅度增加,而脂肪/蛋白质百分比季节性保持一致.
结论:
- 奶牛的生产率表现出明显的趋势和季节性,为管理决策提供了洞察力.
- 鉴定的模式可以改进农场模拟,以更准确地预测牛奶和成分生产.
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