欧洲鸟类的本地殖民和灭绝很难用气候适应性的变化来解释
Christine Howard1, Emma-Liina Marjakangas2, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez3,4
1Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK. christine.howard@durham.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|July 20, 2023
概括
物种范围的变化受到初始气候条件和特征的影响,而不仅仅是气候变化. 了解这些复杂的驱动因素是准确的未来生态预测的关键.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化与物种范围的变化有关,但驱动因素仍在争论中.
- 了解最近的范围动态需要评估多种环境和物种特定因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查欧洲繁殖鸟类近期范围转移的驱动因素.
- 评估气候,土地覆盖和物种特征对范围动态的相对重要性.
主要方法:
- 在30年内分析了378种欧洲鸟类的分布变化.
- 使用气候,土地覆盖面和物种特征建模了当地殖民和灭绝概率.
主要成果:
- 平均物种范围的移动是每年2.4公里,与气候/土地覆盖预期有所不同.
- 殖民化和灭绝主要是由最初的气候条件和物种的范围特征驱动的.
- 气候适应性的变化比初始条件和特征的影响要小.
结论:
- 最近鸟类范围的变化是复杂的,不仅仅受到当前气候适应性的影响.
- 综合性,多预测方法对于稳健的生态预测至关重要.
- 仅仅使用气候和土地覆盖来预测未来物种分布存在局限性.
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