在疫情中合理的社交距离,疫苗接种时间不确定.
Simon K Schnyder1, John J Molina2, Ryoichi Yamamoto2
1Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
PloS one
|July 21, 2023
概括
在疫情期间,人们可能会根据预期的疫苗接种时间增加社交距离. 疫苗的更早或更确定的到来导致更强的隔离,影响流行病管理策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 个人在流行病期间减少社会和经济活动,以减轻感染风险.
- 流行病期间最优的决策是具有挑战性的,因为信息不完整和关于流行病的进程和解决方案的不确定性,如疫苗接种.
- 社会距离的有效性受到流行病持续时间和疫苗等潜在干预措施的看法的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析关于疫苗接种时间的信息如何影响流行病期间的最佳决策.
- 将社会距离作为纳什平衡在一个包含概率疫苗到达的差分游戏中的模型.
- 调查疫苗到达概率分布对社交距离行为的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用差异性游戏模型来代表流行病期间的个人决策.
- 包含一个概率分布来描述疫苗到达的时间.
- 分析纳什平衡以预测在不同疫苗接种场景下最佳的社交距离策略.
主要成果:
- 预测,预期的早期疫苗接种和疫苗到达的概率分布更,导致社会距离的增加.
- 发现,与没有接种疫苗的情况相比,社交距离的显著偏差只会发生在疫情自然结束之前预计接种疫苗时.
- 证明疫苗接种时间分布的功能是一种通用的折扣形式,类似于指数分布的指数折扣.
结论:
- 疫苗接种时间的不确定性显著影响了流行病控制策略.
- 关于疫苗到达的概率信息对于优化公共卫生干预和流行病期间的个人行为至关重要.
- 这项研究为了解未来干预措施的期望如何影响当今风险减轻行为提供了一个框架.
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