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未来情景的综合干旱脆弱性和风险评估:基于指标的分析分析
1Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
The Science of the total environment
|July 21, 2023
概括
全球变暖将使到2050年,干旱风险人口增加至45%. 干旱地区面临更高的风险,而一些潮湿地区可能会看到脆弱性降低,但干旱风险增加. 这凸显了有针对性的适应战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 社会经济学研究 社会经济学研究
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
背景情况:
- 气候变化和社会经济发展动态地改变了全球干旱危险,脆弱性和风险.
- 在全球化经济中,对未来干旱影响的理解在变暖下是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 绘制和评估到2030年代和2050年代全球干旱脆弱性和人口风险的变化.
- 在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 和排放场景下分析这些变化.
主要方法:
- 利用历史和预测的气候,地理和社会经济数据.
- 使用先进的建模来评估干旱危险,脆弱性和人口风险的变化.
- 在不同地区和场景中映射全球干旱风险.
主要成果:
- 预计受干旱风险的人口将增加21.96%25.95% (2030年代) 和36.64%45.40% (2050年代).
- 在全球58%的土地上,干旱危险增加;在50%80%的地区,脆弱性下降.
- 干旱/半干旱地区 (非洲,中亚,澳大利亚) 面临更高的风险,特别是在高排放的情况下.
结论:
- 由于人口增长和危险/脆弱性动态的变化,未来的干旱影响将是显著的.
- 干旱风险的区域差异很明显,干旱地区最脆弱.
- 研究结果支持制定针对全球变暖和经济全球化的有针对性的适应和减缓战略.
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