一个具有四个参数的新型灰色Verhulst模型及其用于预测中国二氧化碳排放的应用
Bo Zeng1, Tingting Zheng2, Yingjie Yang3
1School of Management Science and Engineering, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China.
The Science of the total environment
|July 23, 2023
概括
一个新的四参数灰色Verhulst模型准确地预测了中国的二氧化碳排放量,这对于在双重碳目标下制定有效的减排政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
背景情况:
- 中国的双重碳目标需要可靠的二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放预测.
- 准确的预测对于制定有效的政府减排战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的,增强的灰色Verhulst模型来预测中国的二氧化碳排放.
- 在适应性和预测准确性方面改善传统灰色Verhulst模型的局限性.
主要方法:
- 开发一个包含非线性校正项的四参数灰色Verhulst模型.
- 使用Gamma函数扩展灰色生成操作员的订单范围.
- 模拟和验证模型与历史的二氧化碳排放数据对比.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型实现了只有0.65%的综合平均相对百分比误差.
- 这种准确性明显优于其他三种灰色模型,它们的误差为2.39%,2.34%和2.35%.
- 该模型展示了中国二氧化碳排放数据的卓越建模能力.
结论:
- 增强的灰色Verhulst模型为预测中国未来的二氧化碳排放提供了可靠的工具.
- 预测显示,同比持续增长,到2028年达到136.87亿.
- 根据这些预测,该研究提出了反制措施和建议,以控制中国的二氧化碳排放.
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