一个优化的灰色模型用于预测中国的非可再生能源消耗
Jianlong Guo1,2, Lifeng Wu3, Yali Mu1,2
1College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
Heliyon
|July 24, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境科学环境科学
- 预测模型的预测模型.
背景情况:
- 中国的高非可再生能源消耗对碳中和目标构成挑战.
- 准确预测能源消耗对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的灰色模型,用于预测中国的非可再生能源消耗.
- 通过引入可调节的信息权重和优化参数来提高预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 通过加入两个信息权重调整参数来修改传统的灰色模型.
- 使用智能优化算法来确定最佳模型参数.
- 通过三个不同的案例研究验证模型的可行性.
主要成果:
- 预测显示,石油和天然气消费的持续加速增长.
- 预计到2026年,石油消费量将超过37 EJ,天然气消费量将超过22 EJ.
- 与2021年的水平相比,预计石油消费量将增加近24%,天然气消费量将增加60%以上,而煤炭消费量的增长将放缓和稳定.
结论:
- 拟议的灰色模型有效预测了中国的非可再生能源消费趋势.
- 石油和天然气需求的加速增长凸显了战略能源规划的必要性.
- 稳定煤炭消费表明中国能源结构可能发生转变.
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