开发和验证Nomogram用于预测重症监护病房中血小板缺血患者的生存率
Zhen-Hong Jiang1, Guo-Hu Zhang1, Jin-Ming Xia1
1Emergency Department, Affiliated Hospital of Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 310015, People's Republic of China.
Risk management and healthcare policy
|July 24, 2023
概括
一种新的诺米图有效地预测了重症监护室 (ICU) 患有血栓缩症 (TCP) 的患者的生存率. 这种工具可以帮助降低高风险的ICU患者与TCP的死亡率和并发症.
科学领域:
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 血液学 血液学 血液学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 血小板缺血 (TCP) 是重症监护室 (ICU) 中常见且严重的疾病.
- 准确的预后风险评估对于管理TCP的ICU患者至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响ICU患者TCP生存的关键风险因素.
- 开发和验证一个强大的风险预测模型和Nomogram,用于ICU的TCP患者.
主要方法:
- 采用LASSO回归来精确确定TCP患者存活时间的显著临床指标.
- 在开发队列上使用已识别的指标构建了一个预测模型和名图.
- 在验证队列中,使用ROC曲线,校准图和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 严格评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 这项研究分析了141例ICU TCP病例,其中47例死亡. 重要的预测因素包括N,TBIL,APACHE II,WPRN,WTOST和DMV.
- 开发的预测模型显示出高准确性,在开发队列中AUC为0.918,在验证队列中为0.926.
- 命名图表显示出优异的区分 (C指数为0.853) 和验证队列中的校准,DCA证实了其临床实用性.
结论:
- 开发了一种个性化的名图,为TCP的ICU患者提供了有效的预后预测.
- 这种经过验证的预测工具有可能在重症监护机构降低与TCP相关的发病率和死亡率.
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