中国臭氧相关过早死亡的驱动因素:对历史和未来情景的影响
1Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
Journal of environmental management
|July 24, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 长期暴露于环境臭氧 (O3) 在中国对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 了解推动O3相关过早死亡的因素对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化高峰季度O3变化,人口规模,年龄结构和基线死亡率对中国O3相关死亡率的贡献.
- 预测未来的O3相关死亡率趋势,并评估不同O3缓解策略的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用分解分析来归因与O3相关的死亡率的变化.
- 分析了2013年至2021年的历史数据,并预测了2035年的趋势.
- 评估了实现世界卫生组织 (WHO) 对O3的临时目标的影响.
主要成果:
- 2013年至2021年,中国的O3相关死亡率下降,受O3的变化,人口,年龄结构和基线死亡率的影响.
- 高峰季度O3对死亡率的影响在2013-2019年和2019-2021年之间从积极转向负面.
- 预计未来与氧气3相关的死亡率将增加 (31%到2035年),主要是由于人口老龄化.
- 实现世界卫生组织对O3的IT-2可以防止83.7%的O3相关死亡率,远远超过IT-1 (3.9%) 的影响.
结论:
- 虽然与氧气3相关的死亡率已经下降,但未来的趋势表明,由于人口变化,特别是老龄化,可能会增加.
- 实质性的O3缓解策略对于抵消预计的死亡率上升至关重要.
- 更严格的O3标准,如世卫组织IT-2,为公众健康带来了显著的好处,并减少了死亡率.
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