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相关概念视频

Hindsight Biases01:12

Hindsight Biases

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - II01:28

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The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:
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Null and Alternative Hypotheses01:16

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

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The actual hypothesis testing begins by considering two hypotheses. They are termed  the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints.
The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 is a statement of no difference between the variables—they are not related. This can often be considered the status quo. As  a result if you cannot accept the null, it requires some action.
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Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - I01:30

Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - I

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The Bradford Hill criteria are a group of principles that provide a framework to determine a causal relationship between a specific factor and a disease. There are nine criteria that are pivotal in assessing causality in epidemiological studies. Here's a closer look at Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality criteria with definitions and examples:
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Reason and Intuition01:37

Reason and Intuition

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The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
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Hypothesis: Accept or Fail to Reject?01:17

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The outcome of any hypothesis testing leads to rejecting or not rejecting the null hypothesis. This decision is taken based on the analysis of the data, an appropriate test statistic, an appropriate confidence level, the critical values, and P-values. However, when the evidence suggests that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected, is it right to say, 'Accept' the null hypothesis?
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jul 22, 2025

Task Interruption and Resumption Paradigm for Testing the Activation and Pursuit of an Abstract Thinking Goal
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Task Interruption and Resumption Paradigm for Testing the Activation and Pursuit of an Abstract Thinking Goal

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接近反事实和几乎做不可能的事情.

Tiffany Doan1, Stephanie Denison2, Ori Friedman2

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue W, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada. t3doan@uwaterloo.ca.

Psychonomic bulletin & review
|July 24, 2023
PubMed
概括

人们根据可能性与概率对待未实现的结果的看法不同. "几乎发生了"的判断优先考虑了可能性,而"很容易发生了"则专注于概率.

关键词:
认知 认知是一种认知.反事实 (Counterfactuals) 是指反事实 (Counterfactuals) 是指反事实 (Counterfactuals) 是指反事实 (Counterfactuals) 是指反事实.有可能的可能性.可能性的概率.倾向性是一种倾向性.

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相关实验视频

Last Updated: Jul 22, 2025

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06:45

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学

背景情况:

  • 人们经常从事反事实思维,考虑没有发生的事件.
  • 一些反事实感觉非常接近现实,导致像"几乎发生了"或"很容易发生了"这样的短语.

研究的目的:

  • 调查可能性如何影响反事实接近的判断.
  • 要确定这种影响是否在"几乎发生"和"很容易发生"的反事实之间有所不同.

主要方法:

  • 四个预先注册的实验涉及1,228名参与者.
  • 对可能性和概率的操纵,以评估它们对反事实接近性判断的影响.

主要成果:

  • "几乎发生了"的判断对可能性比概率更敏感.
  • "很容易发生"的判断将可能性视为另一个概率变量.
  • 倾向对这两种判断类型的影响较小,但一致.

结论:

  • 在反事实性接近性判断中,可能性起着独特的作用.
  • 反事实类型 (几乎与容易可能) 决定了给可能性与概率的认知权重.