在识别受威胁生态系统时,专家选择的重要性
Samantha K Travers1,2, Josh Dorrough3, Ian Shannon4
1New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment, Lisarow, NSW, Australia.
概括
保护受威胁的生态系统需要可靠的专家投入. 一个由大约17-20名专家组成的多元化小组可以形成生态系统存在的准确模型,改善保护决策.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 识别受威胁的生态系统对于保护至关重要.
- 鉴定中的专家判断可能导致不一致和不透明的结果.
- 需要开发透明和可靠的生态系统评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 确定可靠的生态系统存在评估所需的专家人数.
- 评估专家选择策略对预测模型准确性的影响.
- 评估各种专家池是否能为保护提供更好的模型预测.
主要方法:
- 引发了83名专家对澳大利亚极度危生态系统的专家判断.
- 使用功率和样本大小计算用于理论专家要求.
- 应用增强回归树来建模来自122个图片的专家数据.
主要成果:
- 在某些场景中,至少需要17名专家才能达成可靠的共识 (准确率为90%).
- 对于一个可靠的预测模型,大约有20名专家是足够的.
- 专家选择策略可能会导致结果偏差;多样化,较小的专家池的表现与较大,不多样化的小组相比较.
结论:
- 在模型中结合不同的专家判断,可以提高保护决策的透明度和一致性.
- 基于模型的决策支持工具有效地汇集广泛的专业知识,用于复杂的生态系统评估.
- 多样化的专家池提高了受威胁生态系统的保护和管理策略的可靠性.
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