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警告即将发生的大西洋南部翻转循环的崩
Peter Ditlevsen1, Susanne Ditlevsen2
1Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. pditlev@nbi.ku.dk.
Nature communications
|July 25, 2023
概括
估计大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 的崩将在本世纪中叶左右发生. 这一转折点可能会对北大西洋气候产生重大影响,尽管之前的模型表明了相反.
科学领域:
- 气候科学气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 是一个关键的气候倾斜元素.
- 观察到AMOC的减弱引发了人们对未来潜在崩的担忧.
- 以前的评估表明,在21世纪内崩不太可能.
研究的目的:
- 为AMOC倾斜提供统计学意义和数据驱动的估计器.
- 根据当前的排放场景,估计潜在的AMOC崩的时间.
主要方法:
- 对临界点的早期预警信号的分析,包括增加的方差和自身相关性.
- 统计建模和数据驱动的估计 AMOC 倾斜时间.
主要成果:
- 已经观察到AMOC倾斜的早期预警信号.
- 据估计,AMOC的崩将在本世纪中叶左右发生.
- 这一预测是基于当前的温室气体排放情景.
结论:
- AMOC可能比气候模型之前估计的更接近一个临界点.
- 未来的AMOC崩可能会对区域气候产生严重影响.
- 迫切关注温室气体排放是有必要的,以减轻气候倾斜风险.
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