对于具有环境和人口随机性模型的人口增长的分区差异
Jonas Knape1, Matthieu Paquet1,2, Debora Arlt1,3
1Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
The Journal of animal ecology
|July 26, 2023
概括
过渡生命表反应实验 (LTRE) 现在分解了实现的增长率,考虑到环境因素和人口随机性. 这种方法揭示了人口动态的关键驱动因素,特别是在中等规模的人口中.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 生命表反应实验 (LTRE) 传统上分析非对称的人口增长率.
- 最近的进展利用短暂的LTREs来检查年度"实现"的增长率和关键速率变化的影响.
- 现有的方法缺乏正式的方法来评估影响生命率的环境驱动因素如何转化为增长率变化.
研究的目的:
- 扩大暂时的LTREs,以将重要利率贡献分成时间变化的因素.
- 为了比较环境因素的影响和密度对增长率的依赖.
- 将实现的增长率分解为环境和人口随机性的组成部分.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个扩展的过渡性LTRE框架,以分割关键利率贡献.
- 将环境共变量 (温度,降雨量,密度) 整合到人口模型中.
- 将综合人口模型 (IPM) 应用于北方小麦田 (Oenanthe oenanthe) 的26年数据集.
- 将实现的增长率变化分解为环境和人口随机性成分.
主要成果:
- 生长率的环境变化受到第一年生存率 (无法解释的组成部分) 和成年生存率 (温度) 的显著影响.
- 人口随机性占这一中等规模人口实现增长率变化的一半以上.
- 扩展的LTRE框架成功地分离了由于不同的环境因素和人口随机性而导致的增长率波动.
结论:
- 扩展的短暂LTRE提供了一个强大的方法来剖析人口增长率的变化.
- 温度和人口随机性等环境因素是迁徙鸟类种群动态的关键驱动因素.
- 人口随机性在种群波动中起着重要作用,即使是在种类中适度种群规模的物种中也是如此.
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