全球变暖和北极:估计气候变化对世界上最长的迁徙影响
Joanne M Morten1, Pearse J Buchanan2, C Egevang3
1Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Exeter, Hatherly Laboratories, Exeter, UK.
Global change biology
|July 26, 2023
概括
气候变化对北极构成威胁,预计北大西洋食物来源的减少将影响食. 虽然其他迁移区域的变化很小,但南洋风力增强可能会改变航线,凸显出排放目标的必要性.
科学领域:
- 鸟类生态学 鸟类生态学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 极地生物学 极地生物学
背景情况:
- 北极在极地之间进行长期迁徙.
- 海鸟,特别是极地游客,面临着气候变化的重大威胁.
- 它们的迁徙依赖于海洋生产力,海冰和风的模式.
研究的目的:
- 分析21世纪影响北极的环境变量趋势.
- 在不同的场景下,预测气候变化对它们的迁徙航线的影响.
- 评估对食,海冰和风力状况的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 利用追踪数据来确定关键的非繁殖季节地点.
- 用地球系统模型来预测本世纪末的气候变化.
- 对"中途"和"化石燃料发展"情景进行计算的多模型平均值.
主要成果:
- 在"化石燃料发展"情景下,北大西洋初级产量预计下降.
- 预计Benguela上游,南极洲下印度洋和南洋的变化最小.
- 南大洋西风的潜在增强和收缩,可能需要调整路线.
结论:
- 气候变化可能对北极的迁徙产生较小的整体影响,北大西洋食除外.
- 北极的长寿和广泛的旅行可能会放大微小环境变化的累积影响.
- 实现碳排放目标对于减轻气候变化影响和减少极地物种灭绝风险至关重要.
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