开发和验证用于预测家庭暴力中重犯风险的预测工具
Rongqin Yu1, Yasmina Molero2, Paul Lichtenstein3
1Department of Psychiatry, Warneford Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
JAMA network open
|July 26, 2023
概括
新的预测工具使用国家数据准确评估家庭暴力的重犯风险. 这些基于证据的工具有助于做出刑事司法决定,并为因家庭暴力而被捕的个人分配治疗.
科学领域:
- 法医精神病学 法医精神病学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 现有的家庭暴力风险评估工具缺乏准确性和验证性.
- 需要更好的工具来预测家庭暴力犯人的重复犯罪.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证家庭暴力重犯的新预测模型.
- 为刑事司法系统使用创建可访问的风险评估工具.
主要方法:
- 分析了在瑞典因家庭暴力而被捕的个人 (1998-2013) 的全国队列.
- 使用社会人口统计学,犯罪学和心理健康因素开发了预测模型.
- 考克斯比例危险回归被用于模型开发和外部验证.
主要成果:
- 预测模型展示了良好的歧视和校准暴力和任何重犯.
- 暴力重犯风险曲线下的面积 (AUC) 在0.75-0.76.6之间.
- 模型被翻译成自由可用的在线风险计算器.
结论:
- 开发了可扩展的,基于证据的预测工具,支持在逮捕阶段的刑事司法决策.
- 这些工具可以识别高风险个体,并为治疗分配提供信息.
- 这些工具加强了对可修改的风险因素的关注,对那些处于重犯高风险的人来说.
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