世卫组织全球局势警报系统:一种混合方法多阶段方法,用于识别国家级COVID-19警报
Martina McMenamin1, Jessica Kolmer1, Irena Djordjevic1
1WHO Health Emergencies Programme, WHO Headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland.
BMJ global health
|July 26, 2023
概括
世界卫生组织 (WHO) 创建了一个警报系统,以监测COVID-19风险和医疗保健能力. 这种系统可以更好地提前检测潜在的过度延伸,帮助及时分配资源.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生系统管理管理卫生系统管理
背景情况:
- 到2023年1月,全球报告的COVID-19病例超过6.64亿例,死亡人数为670万.
- 世界卫生组织 (WHO) 从2021年5月到2022年6月实施了每周一次的公共卫生风险评估系统.
- 该系统旨在主动识别那些面临医疗保健能力过剩风险的国家.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个基于证据的警报系统,用于监测COVID-19流行风险.
- 促进早期识别各种国家潜在的医疗保健系统过度扩张.
- 根据评估的公共卫生风险,支持及时部署资源和援助.
主要方法:
- 采用了三个阶段的混合方法方法.
- 第一个阶段:预测未来因报告病例和死亡而导致的死亡,以产生初始警报级别.
- 第二阶段:使用上下文指标和贝叶斯数据质量分类器调整警报级别.
- 第三阶段:将具有"高"警戒级别的国家列入针对性援助的行动观察名单.
主要成果:
- 该系统支持释放超过2700万美元的紧急资金,诊断工具包和氧气度器.
- 追溯评估显示,前两个阶段对于最大限度地提高敏感性至关重要,比单独使用报告的病例/死亡数量多识别了44%的警报.
- 警报通常是及时和有效的,尽管在某些国家,由于数据的可用性,评估受到限制.
结论:
- 开发的系统提供了一种标准化的方法,用于使用流行病学和上下文数据进行国家一级的流行病监测.
- 该系统的框架可以适应未来的疫情和卫生紧急情况,并进行参数调整.
- 这种方法通过积极的风险评估和应对来加强全球卫生安全.
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