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加快中国向光伏和风能转型
Yijing Wang1, Rong Wang2,3,4,5,6,7,8, Katsumasa Tanaka9,10
1Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Nature
|July 26, 2023
概括
通过大幅增加太阳能和风能发电,中国可以实现2060年的碳中和目标. 优化电厂部署和电网基础设施可以提高产能并降低碳减排成本.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析
- 可再生能源政策
- 减缓气候变化
背景情况:
- 中国的目标是到2060年实现碳中和,需要大幅增加光伏和风能发电能力.
- 目前基于历史速度和第十四个五年能源发展计划的预测表明,到2060年,该产能将达到每年5至9.5千瓦时,远远低于每年10至15千瓦时的目标.
研究的目的:
- 通过优化光伏和风能部署来确定中国的碳中和目标是否可行.
- 评估包括超高压传输和储能在内的协调电网升级对可再生能源容量和成本的影响.
- 分析实现更高可再生能源透率的经济影响,包括投资需求和减排成本.
主要方法:
- 优化部署3844个新的公用事业规模光伏和风电厂.
- 超高压 (UHV) 传输基础设施的整合
- 整合储能解决方案和功率负载灵活性.
- 考虑技术成本和部署效率中的学习动态.
主要成果:
- 实现了每年15 PWh的光伏和风能产能,超过了CFED路径预计的每年9 PWh.
- 将二氧化碳减排的平均成本从每97美元降至6美元.
- 确定增加年化投资的需要,从2020年的770亿美元增加到20世纪50年代的4260亿美元.
- 包括贫困地区居民收入的增加.
结论:
- 通过优化光伏和风力发电以及战略性电网改进, 实现中国2060年碳中和目标.
- 通过储能,扩大输电和需求侧灵活性升级电力系统对于经济高效的可再生能源扩张至关重要.
- 对可再生能源基础设施进行大量投资是必要的,但会带来巨大的经济和环境效益.
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