在全球变暖下连续发生的拉尼娜现象的增加
Nature
|July 26, 2023
概括
由于温室气体排放,连续持续数年的拉尼娜现象的频率预计将增加. 这种趋势表明,气候极端事件对全球生态系统和农业的影响越来越频繁.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 海洋学
- 大气科学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜是影响全球天气的关键气候模式.
- 连续发生的拉尼娜现象会延长气候影响.
- 未来的多年拉尼娜频率变化仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种温室气体排放情况,研究未来连续的拉尼娜现象的频率.
- 了解导致拉尼娜现象持续时间变化的潜在气候动态.
主要方法:
- 在未来的温室气体强迫下利用气候模型.
- 分析模型输出以评估拉尼娜事件频率和特征的变化.
- 研究了太平洋变暖模式在调节拉尼娜持续性的作用.
主要成果:
- 连续发生的拉尼娜现象频率预计将从19% (低排放) 增加到33% (高排放).
- 较高的排放场景显示了对拉尼娜现象频率增加的更强的模型间共识.
- 温室变暖加剧了异常的东风,延长了拉尼娜的寒冷异常.
结论:
- 连续的拉尼娜现象可能会在整个21世纪变得更加频繁.
- 这些事件的频率增加将导致气候极端事件的频率和持续时间增加.
- 这些发现突显了人为气候变化对ENSO动态的影响.
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