模拟探索和挑战当文化规范发生变化时固有的假设:关于左撇子和预期寿命的案例研究
Juan Lavista Ferres1, Md Nasir1, Avleen Bijral2
1AI for Good Lab, Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA, USA.
概括
报告左撇子的历史变化,而不是实际寿命差异,解释了预期寿命的9年差距. 这项研究揭示了随着时间的推移,手性数据中的报告偏见.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人类生物学 人类生物学
背景情况:
- 1991年的一项研究声称,左撇子比右撇子年轻9岁.
- 随后的研究质疑了这一点,引用了报告的左撇子率的历史变化.
- 了解这些报告变化对于准确的预期寿命分析至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查报告中左撇子的历史变化是否解释了预期寿命的9年差异.
- 模拟左撇子报告不足对观察到的死亡率差异的影响.
- 重新评估手性与寿命之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个模型来分析美国的死亡数据,根据出生年份,性别和1989年的手性.
- 报告的手性率与1900-1989年的反事实估计率进行了比较.
- 利用模拟来评估在不同的手性报告场景下预期寿命差异.
主要成果:
- 调整为左撇子的历史报告不足,观察到左撇子的模拟9.3年早期死亡.
- 这种模拟的差异在统计学上并不显著,主要归因于报告偏差.
- 当控制性别并假设一致的左撇子率时,生存差异减少到0.02年.
结论:
- 随着时间的推移,左撇子报告的变化率完全解释了最初观察到的9年的预期寿命差距.
- 流行病学数据中过去的报道偏差需要重新审查以前的发现.
- 模拟建模为分析科学研究中历史报告偏见提供了有价值的工具.
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