森林生产力恢复还是崩? 关于干旱引起的临界点的模型数据集成见解
J Au1, A A Bloom2, N C Parazoo2
1Department of Plant Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, California, USA.
Global change biology
|July 27, 2023
概括
严重的干旱在全球范围内增加了森林死亡率. 这项研究使用CARDAMOM模型来展示干旱如何影响森林碳循环,揭示土壤水分和碳池变化是预测森林崩的关键.
科学领域:
- 森林生态 森林生态
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 生态系统建模 生态系统建模
背景情况:
- 全球范围内日益频繁和严重的干旱正在推动森林死亡率.
- 了解干旱对森林碳循环的影响以及确定生态系统崩值至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) 调查干旱对森林碳池和流量的遗留影响.
- 确定生态过程对加利福尼亚州2012-2015年干旱的反应和敏感性.
主要方法:
- 采用贝叶斯模型-数据融合方法,使用塔观测的气象数据和碳流.
- 利用CARDAMOM框架分析对干旱条件的生态反应.
主要成果:
- 干旱 (2012-2015年) 导致总初级生产率 (GPP) 减少了约75%,当时卡达蒙被限制使用2011-2017年的数据.
- 降水不足导致土壤水分和碳池 (叶状,状,根,垃圾) 的级联耗尽.
- 在一个紧张的年份 (2014年) 中,降雨量适度增加,使生态系统从崩转向恢复.
结论:
- 土壤水分和碳池的长期变化机械地将干旱与森林死亡联系起来.
- 森林生态系统GPP崩对叶子碳和土壤水分状态很敏感,随着多年来全面反应的发展.
- 降水值对于监测和预测森林死亡事件至关重要.
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