超认知意识和热手:当胜利时,没有多少意识将有强烈的信徒避免启发式
1Department of Psychology, Barnard College, New York, NY 10027, USA.
Journal of Intelligence
|July 28, 2023
概括
热手谬论 (HHF) 可能导致冒险的博决策,但更高的元认知意识可以减轻一些人. 需要进一步的研究才能充分理解和避免这种认知偏见.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- "热手"现象,即个人认为过去的成功预示着未来的成功,在体育和其他领域都是常见的.
- 热手谬误 (HHF) 描述了对此类线条的错误信念,可能导致次优决策.
- 超认知意识,即监测和控制自己的认知能力,可能会影响不确定性下的决策.
研究的目的:
- 调查热手谬论 (HHF) 与博环境中的风险决策之间的关系.
- 为了检查超认知意识是否与在高高频率存在时更优的选择有关.
- 探索启发式使用和元认知之间的个人差异如何相互作用.
主要方法:
- 测量了参与者使用热手启发式的基线倾向.
- 参与者参与了一个模拟的卡牌博任务,呈现了连胜连败的结果.
- 通过评估参与者区分正确和不正确反应的能力来评估元认知意识.
主要成果:
- 那些使用高高频的倾向较弱的人在超认知意识较高时做出风险较小的决定,尤其是在连续赢球之后.
- 那些具有强烈的基线HHF倾向的人,无论他们的元认知意识如何,都没有显示出风险决策的减少.
- 这些发现部分支持了这一假设,表明启发式依赖和元认知之间存在复杂的相互作用.
结论:
- 超认知意识可能有助于那些对HHF敏感度较低的人避免做出危险的选择.
- 更强烈地坚持HHF似乎取代了元认知意识在减轻风险决策方面的潜在好处.
- 需要进一步的研究,以制定有效克服热手谬误的策略.
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